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MARCH 10,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THE REPUBLICAN DEBATE – There was another Republican debate tonight, hosted by CNN.  It was probably the best of the debates so far, with Trump, Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich participating.  Trump actually behaved himself and came off as marginally presidential, obviously an intentional tactic to improve his image.  However, his answers to many questions, especially on foreign policy, were vague, and sometimes sounded more leftist than Republican.  (He called the 1989 democracy protests in Tiananmen Square, China, a "riot.")  That shouldn't shock us, for Trump isn't a Republican or a conservative.  All the debaters were focused on Tuesday's primaries in Florida and Ohio.  Trump leads in Florida polling, an embarrassment to Marco Rubio, the senator from that state.  The race is closer in Ohio, Governor Kasich's home state, where most polls show Trump leading, but not by a large amount.  Pundits divided on who won tonight's debate, but no one thought it was a game changer. 

OUR CIVILIZATION LIVES – From the College Fix:   A petition asking Stanford University students to put to a campuswide vote the question of whether the study of Western Civilization should be required to earn a diploma has passed muster, its backers report.  The petition late Wednesday passed the 350-signature threshold necessary for consideration as a campuswide ballot measure just under deadline, reports the conservative-leaning Stanford Review, whose editorial board authored the petition.  It's good news, but the betting is that students, brainwashed by leftist education will turn down the excellent proposal.  Western Civilization used to be a staple of a college education.  But as the left became more and more powerful, it was seen as obsolete, the work of "dead white men," and a barrier to "social justice."  Even if Stanford students agree to the idea, the faculty must go along.  Some chance.

CARSON DECIDES – Dr. Ben Carson is expected to endorse Donald Trump for president, probably tomorrow.  The news came as a jolt, with observers wondering why a refined man like Carson would endorse the gruff, often coarse Trump.  We'll hear why from Carson directly when he makes his endorsement.  Some theorize that the endorsement makes sense, that Carson, loved by many Republicans, might wish to be on the ticket as vice presidential nominee, and that he's concluded that Trump will win the presidential nomination.  Also, there have been many reports that Trump is making headway in the black community, and Dr. Carson could only help that progress. 

March 10, 2016       Permalink

PLEASE TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY – AT 11:34 A.M. ET:  ISIS has just released a new video, in English.  It is chilling, and should be regarded with the utmost seriousness, considering the record that ISIS has built up.  From London's Daily Mail:   

An English-speaking ISIS jihadi has warned America they will be attacked 'very soon' and 'by Allah's permission do to your country what we did to Paris'.

In a chilling new ISIS video, he warns the US and President Barack Obama that the terror group will 'kill, slaughter and burn your people'.

The jihadi tells America it can expect an atrocity similar to the massacre in Paris in November in which 130 people were murdered in a wave of shootings and suicide bomb attacks.

The narrator speaks English as he delivers his disturbing threat - but it is not known whether he is British.

Footage begins with the title of the video: 'A message to America From The Islamic Caliphate Supporters.'

The man says: 'Paris isn’t far from you - we will by Allah’s permission do to your country what we did to Paris. We will kill, slaughter and burn your people.

'Inshallah (God willing), we will attack you very soon with anything we lay our hands on.'

Against a backdrop of footage from conflicts in the Middle East and harrowing scenes from the Paris attack, the narrator says: 'You dogs of Rome, Kerry and Obama, haven't you learned your lesson yet?

COMMENT:  ISIS, in the last year, has lost some territory in Iraq and Syria, but it has built up elsewhere, expanding its international operations.  It is only a matter of time before it tries something here, and we've learned recently that intelligence officials in several countries expect a major attack.  Will ISIS try something during our presidential campaign?  I don't know, but eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.

March 10, 2016       Permalink

SUPERB – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  Garry Kasparov, the Russian chess champion and political activist, has written a superb column, based on a previous Facebook comment of his, countering the views of Bernie Sanders.   This is a must read, filled with information.  An example becomes our quote of the day.  From Garry Kasparov, in The Daily Beast: 

The problem is with the proposed solutions. A society that relies too heavily on redistributing wealth eventually runs out of wealth to redistribute. The historical record is clear. It’s capitalism that brought billions of people out of poverty in the 20th century. It’s socialism that enslaved them and impoverished them. Of course Senator Sanders does not want to turn America into a totalitarian state like the one I grew up in. But it’s a valuable example of the inevitable failure of a state-run economy and distribution system. (Check in on Venezuela for a more recent example.) Once you give power to the government it is nearly impossible to get it back, and it will be used in ways you cannot expect.

The USSR collapsed because it couldn’t compete over time, despite its massive resources and devout ideology. The Soviets put a man in space before America but couldn’t keep up the pace against an innovating, free-market competitor. My Facebook post went around the world on technology created in America. The networks, the satellites, the software, nearly every ingredient in every mobile device and desktop computer, was invented in the USA. It is not a coincidence that the most capitalist country in the world created all these things. Innovation requires freedom of thought, freedom of capital, and people who believe in changing the world.

Yes, the free market can be cruel and it is by definition unequal. It has winners and losers. It also sparks the spirit of creativity that humanity desperately needs to flourish in our ever-increasing billions. Failure is an essential part of innovation and the free market. Of every 10 new companies, perhaps nine will fail in brutal Darwinian competition. A centrally-planned economy cannot imitate this engine of creative destruction because you cannot plan for failure. You cannot predestine which two college dropouts in a garage will produce the next Apple.

COMMENT:  Be sure to read the whole thing and send it around.  To me, the most dangerous candidate running in this election is Bernie Sanders.  He's a decent and honorable man, and, as Kasparov points out elsewhere in his piece, he feels passionately for his cause.  Good on him.  But his cause is wrong, and dangerous.  Bernie Sanders and I were students at the University of Chicago at the same time.  I never met him.  I wish I had.  I would have preached the gospel of freedom to him, and he could have avoided all his bad thoughts.

March 10, 2016       Permalink

WHAA..? – AT 9:26 A.M. ET:  President Obama's approval rating is at its highest point in three years.  What is the explanation?  From The Hill:

More Americans now say President Obama is doing a good job than at any other point in almost three years.

Fifty percent approve of Obama’s performance as chief executive according to Gallup's most recent weekly survey, released Thursday.

Obama's job approval rating ticked up 5 points since the beginning of the year. It's also 3 points higher than the average of his weekly ratings for his seventh year in office, Gallup added.

Obama in now the middle of the pack among other modern presidents during their final March in the Oval Office.

Obama outperforms former President George W. Bush, for example, who received a high of 32 percent in March 2008.

Former President Clinton, meanwhile, earned 63 percent in March 2000, while former President Reagan gained 52 percent in March 1988.

Gallup surveyed 3,563 adults from Feb. 28-March 6. Its new survey has a 2-percent margin of error.

COMMENT:  Have the American people gone bonkers?  On the one hand, polls show them angry and frustrated.  On the other hand, the cause of much of that anger and frustration grows more popular.

I think there's an explanation, maybe several explanations.  First, Obama is compared, in people's minds, to the candidates running to replace them.  They are seen as argumentative, small, quibbling, combative, and he floats above the fray.  He's not doing much these days, and there are no current scandals.  Compared to the battling candidates, Obama has a pretty good image.  In the absence of a bitter election campaign, I think he'd be polling much lower. 

Also, the press still covers for Obama.  It doesn't want the first black president to fail. 

The president's approval rating is actually quite important, I'm sorry to say.  Presidential elections are historically influenced by the approval of the president in power.  A good approval rating for Obama will help the Dem candidate, a poor approval rating will help the Republican choice.

March 10,  2016     Permalink

MARCH 9,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

SECOND POLL VERIFIES TRUMP FLORIDA BLOWOUT –  Less than a week until the first winner-take-all Republican primaries, Donald Trump is trouncing Marco Rubio on his home turf, according to a new Fox News poll.  In the race for the Republican nomination, Trump receives 43 percent among Florida likely GOP primary voters. Rubio is a distant second with 20 percent, closely followed by Ted Cruz at 16 percent. John Kasich comes in fourth with 10 percent.  Here is what’s driving the vote: a 63-percent majority of likely Republican primary voters feels “betrayed” by politicians in their party -- and they go heavily for Trump over Cruz (49-18 percent), with Rubio and Kasich way behind (12 percent and 11 percent respectively). This poll ratifies the CNN poll we reported on earlier today, and even has Trump in a larger lead.  I just don't see how Rubio can catch up by Tuesday. 

IS THIS SERIOUS? – From the Blaze:  Attorney General Loretta Lynch testified Wednesday that the Justice Department has “discussed” taking civil legal action against the fossil fuel industry for “denying” the “threat of carbon emissions” when it comes to climate change.  Huh?  Why don't we just tear up the Constitution entirely and call it a day?  I cannot believe such a discussion took place within the Justice Department, except perhaps as a sop to the climate-change religionists who dominate the Church of Obama.  The climate-change debate among scientists is real and serious.  This is not the 15th century.

WHY? – Jeb Bush is having meetings.  From The Hill:  Jeb Bush is meeting with the three Republican presidential candidates seeking to take down front-runner Donald Trump before Thursday's GOP debate, according to a new report.  Bush is huddling with Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich before the Miami debate, The New York Times reported Wednesday.  The former Florida governor repeatedly clashed with Trump during his own GOP presidential campaign, which ended late last month after disappointing results in early-voting states.  Bush is meeting Rubio on Wednesday and speaking with Cruz and Kasich on Thursday before the debate.  It's unclear whether Bush will endorse a candidate before March 15, when both Ohio and Florida vote in winner-take-all primaries, the Times said.   It's also unclear whether his endorsement will mean anything, positively or negatively.  Jeb Bush is a good man and was a fine governor of Florida.  But someone of his tempo, style and background just wasn't going to make it this year.

KASICH PREDICTS OPEN CONVENTION – From The Hill:  Republican presidential candidate Ohio Gov. John Kasich said Wednesday that he doubts any of the four remaining candidates can win the 1,237 delegates needed to become the GOP nominee and that a contested convention is the likeliest outcome.
Speaking at a town hall event on Fox News, host Greta Van Susteren asked Kasich, who has yet to win any state, if he has a path to the nomination.  “We’ve picked about half the delegates, and we have, of course, the other half to go,” Kasich responded. “And there was this poll today … Trump was at 27, Cruz was at 25 and I was at 24, so it’s really, really jammed and close."  Look, it's possible.  Many in the news business would love to see a contested convention, just for the drama.  The problem, of course, is that Trump could blackmail the convention by threatening a third party if he wasn't given the nomination.   If he carried out the threat, it's likely that no Republican could be elected.   Reads like a good novel, soon to be a minor motion picture.

March 9,  2016     Permalink

FLORIDA, OHIO POLLS – TRUMP UP – AT 4:51 P.M. ET:   A new series of polls shows Trump ahead dramatically in Florida and ahead, but possibly catchable, in Ohio.   From The Politico: 

Donald Trump has a commanding lead over Marco Rubio and John Kasich in their home states.
A CNN/ORC poll out Wednesday has Trump holding the lead in Florida with almost double the share of voters than Rubio (40 percent to 24 percent). Cruz follows with 19 percent and Kasich has just 5 percent.

The poll of Ohio Republicans has Trump ahead of the Ohio governor 41 percent to 35 percent. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has 15 percent and Rubio is a distant fourth with 7 percent.

Rubio's campaign is working nonstop to try and win the state. The Florida senator has essentially camped out in Florida, doing back to back events throughout the state.

Trump appeared on CNN “New Day” Wednesday and was asked about the poll, particularly what it means if he’s able to take both states.

“At that point it’s pretty tough for anybody to do anything,” he said. “I would love to see the party come together and unify.”

There’s added pressure for both Kasich and Rubio to do well at home since a majority of voters in both states say they should get out if they aren’t able to do well: 71 percent for Kasich in Ohio and 66 percent for Rubio in Florida.

COMMENT:  As we've noted, a week from now we may well be looking at a new Republican race.  And it is even possible that the Democratic race may tighten to the point where Hillary is seriously doubted.  Bernie Sanders's surprise win in Michigan last night suggests that he may have strength in the old industrial Midwest.

March 9, 2016        Permalink

WHAT WE FACE – AT 10:52 A.M. ET:   ISIS is trying to develop chemical weapons.  From The New York Times: 

WASHINGTON — An Islamic State detainee currently in American custody at a temporary detention facility in Erbil, Iraq, is a specialist in chemical weapons whom American military officials are questioning about the militant Sunni group’s plans to use the banned substances in Iraq and Syria, Defense officials said.

Defense officials said the detainee, described by the military as a “significant” Islamic State operative who was captured a month ago by commandos in an elite American Special Operations force, has, under interrogation, provided his captors with details about how the group had weaponized mustard gas into powdered form and loaded it into artillery shells.

One Defense official said that it was not concentrated enough to kill anyone, but that it could maim people.

As is protocol, Defense Department officials notified the International Committee of the Red Cross, which monitors the treatment of detainees, that they were holding an Islamic State fighter. The Red Cross acknowledged in a statement on Tuesday that it had visited the detainee but gave no other information.

COMMENT:  Eventually, terrorist groups will get weapons of mass destruction.  If they can't develop them, they might be able to buy them on the black market.  And the number of terror groups seems to be expanding, not contracting.  Reports like this are chilling, but, sadly, soon forgotten by the public.  It will take a serious jolt to wake us up again.

March 9, 2016       Permalink

WELCOME TO HAVANA, PRESIDENT OBAMA – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  The president will soon travel to Havana, or, as it's called by his political friends, Mecca.  But the welcome may well be chilly.  Cuba, you see, has "grievances."  From Reuters: 

HAVANA (Reuters) - Cuba said it would welcome President Barack Obama to Havana later this month, but the Communist government had no intention of changing its policies in exchange for normal relations with the United States.

In a long editorial on Wednesday in Communist Party newspaper Granma and other official media, Cuba demanded Washington cease meddling in its internal affairs and said Obama could do more to change U.S. policy.

The March 20-22 visit from Obama comes 15 months after he and Cuban President Raul Castro agreed to end more than five decades of Cold War-era animosity and try to normalize relations.

They have restored diplomatic ties, and Obama has relaxed a series of trade sanctions and travel restrictions, leading Republican opponents and even some of the president's fellow Democrats to question whether Washington was offering too much without any reciprocation from Havana.

But the editorial made it clear that Cuba still has a long list of grievances with the United States, starting with the comprehensive trade embargo. Obama wants to rescind the embargo but Republican leadership in Congress has blocked the move.

Cuba also objected to U.S. support for its political dissidents, whom some Americans consider champions of human rights but whom the Cuban government views as an unrepresentative minority funded by U.S. interests.

"(The United States) should abandon the pretense of fabricating an internal political opposition, paid for with money from U.S. taxpayers," the nearly 3,000-word editorial said.

The editorial came during Cubans' growing anticipation of the Obama visit, only the second by a U.S. president and the first since the 1959 revolution led by Fidel Castro that overthrew a pro-American government.

The editorial said Cuba was working to build a new relationship with the United States, but no one should assume it had to "renounce any of its principles or cede the slightest bit in its defense" to do so.

COMMENT:  We got nothing from this renewal of ties, and the ordinary people of Cuba got less than nothing.  When you flash weakness at a dictatorship, the dictatorship responds with strength. 

I'm always amused how the Castro crowd, and its allies on American college campuses, claim that the American trade embargo is responsible for ruining the Cuban economy.  That is rubbish.  Cuba trades with the rest of the world.  The ruination of its economy came through traditional Marxist failure. 

Frankly, I wish the president wouldn't go to Cuba.  He'll just be used, although he seems to enjoy that role.  But if he does go, he should insist on speaking with dissidents.  Real dissidents.  Not actors.  Let's see if he's got the guts.

March 9, 2016       Permalink 

LAST NIGHT – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 9:25 A.M. ET:  From Eliana Johnson and Alexis Levinson at NRO: 

It was a terrible night for the forces that have come collectively to be known as #NeverTrump, the diverse array of people, campaigns, and historically important institutions united only by a desire to deny Donald Trump the Republican presidential nomination. Going into Tuesday’s primaries, the last elections before the race enters its final and determinative phase when Ohio and Florida award 165 delegates on a winner-take-all basis next week, Trump’s enemies had hoped to stall his momentum. In particular, they hoped that Ted Cruz, whose campaign is based in large part on his appeal to Evangelical voters, could throw up a roadblock in Mississippi, and that John Kasich could arrest Trump’s momentum in Michigan.

Both Cruz and Kasich failed. And as they did, the slow death of the Republican party ground onward. Hope of preserving the conservative movement that has sustained it for nearly four decades diminished further.

COMMENT:  Perfectly stated.  Read the whole thing. 

There really isn't much more to "analyze" right now.  We will wait six days until next Tuesday, when Ohio and Florida will decide the fate of Kasich and Rubio.  That fate looks pretty grim right now.  Then we may see a Trump-Cruz contest, but the task for Cruz would be monumental.  The best he could probably hope for would be a contested convention.

A Republican debate is scheduled for March 21st in Salt Lake City, Utah.  However, the Republican governor of the state, Gary Herbert, now says that the debate might be canceled because Donald Trump may not show up.  Trump has said, "If I've got it wrapped up, I may not come to Salt Lake."  That's 12 days from now.  As they say, we await developments.

March 9,  2016     Permalink